DETROIT -- The next six years will be boom times for suppliers with the right technology.
LED front lights, telematics, cameras, radar and lithium ion batteries are five technologies that will enjoy the biggest growth in global sales through 2020, predicted Itay Michaeli, Citigroup Inc.’s automotive research director.
“It’s an attractive time for suppliers to be in the right technology segments -- particularly for powertrains and safety,” Michaeli said today following his technology presentation at a suburban Detroit seminar sponsored by the Society for Automotive Analysts.
Michaeli offered annual unit sales growth projections through 2020 for the following technologies:
• LED front lights: 51 percent
• Telematics: 34 percent
• Cameras: 29 percent
• Radar: 23 percent
• Lithium ion batteries: 22 percent.
The Citigroup report also forecast 40 percent annual sales growth for plug-in hybrid vehicles and “pure” electric cars.
According to Michaeli, these technologies are growing more popular because costs have fallen steadily. Moreover, consumers have proven willing to pay for technology that significantly improves safety, fuel economy or comfort.
“People are willing to pay $1,000 or more for things like traffic jam assist,” Michaeli said. “That’s encouraging data.”
Winners and losers
This wave of new technology will create losers as well as winners, Michaeli noted. For example, side mirrors and even the rearview mirror might prove to be outdated technology as automakers add radar, cameras and ultrasound sensors.
If federal regulators allow it, automakers someday might simply get rid of side mirrors, Michaeli predicted.
Cutting-edge technology might create a situation “where a car company wants to take content out of the car safely,” Michaeli said. “It’s the same thing with engines -- you can downsize them and add a turbocharger.”
No comments:
Post a Comment